- Stocks/Bond Markets
-
Gross Investment
-
Drivers
- Bank Reserve Requirements
-
Interest Rates
- Higher rates decrease lending, but also increases entry of fgn capital
-
Govt. Encourage Lending
- SOE
-
SMEs
- Special service desk for SMEs
- Interest subsidies by local govts.
- Local Govt guarantees partial repayments to lending banks
- Min. of Finance also pledges 1.8B RMB to support local govts
- Construction
-
Home Purchases
-
Controls
- Investment in affordable housing
- Down Payment sizes
- Transaction Taxes
-
Acquisitions & Consolidation
- Assets
- Competitors
- Product Lines
-
Consumption
-
Private Consumption
-
Raise Incomes
-
Urban
- Reduce income tax rates
- Reduce bank savings
- Subsidize purchases
- Automobiles
- White Goods
-
Rural
- Price controls (agricultural goods/oil)
- Subsidize purchases
- Vans
- Motorcycles
- White Goods
-
Manufacturing
-
Metrics
- Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI)
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_Managers_Index
-
Industries
- Automotive
- Subtopic 3
- Subtopic 4
-
Metrics
-
Consumer Confidence Index
- NBS
- Nielsen Reports
-
Trade (Net Exports)
-
Exports
-
Manufacturing
-
Metrics
- Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI)
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_Managers_Index
-
Industries
- Subtopic 4
- Automotive
- Retail
-
Govt. Policy
- Value Added Tax (VAT) rebates
- Relaxed enforcement of Environmental regulations
- Subtopic 3
-
Imports
-
Raw Materials
- Oil
- Iron Ore
- Coal
-
Govt. Spending
-
Stimulus Spending
-
Benefits
-
Job creation
- Largest # of college graduates unemployed
- 16M unemployed; 9M urban registered unemployed
- Relaxation of labor restrictions and wage controls
- Contribute to GDP growth
- Boost consumer confidence
-
Downside
- Real projects???
- Corruption
- Infrastructure
- Environment