1. Floating Topic
2. War
   1. Key Mistakes
      1. Military Mistakes
         1. Inability to Control Looting
         2. Failure to Apply COIN
         3. Troop Levels
         4. Abu Ghraib
      2. CPA Mistakes
         1. Debaathification
         2. Dispanding Iraqi Army
   2. Strategy
      1. Invasion
         1. Zinni War Plan
         2. Franks War Plan
      2. Reconstruction
         1. Resources
            1. CRS_Nov2008_Reconstruction_Master.pdf
      3. Iraqi Security Forces
      4. Surge
         1. Origins
            1. Precursors
            2. Tal Affar
            3. Ramadi
            4. David Petraeus, et al.
            5. Jack Keane
            6. Raymond Odierno
         2. Execution
      5. Stability
      6. COIN
         1. USGov_InterAgency_Counterinsurgency_Manual.pdf
   3. Essential Questions
      1. How long will we be there?
      2. What is the goal?
      3. How does Iraq fit within the regional strategy?
      4. Where is Iraq as a global priority (relative to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, etc.)?
   4. Technology
      1. Drones
      2. IEDs
      3. Humvees
   5. Major Battles
      1. Battle of Baghdad
      2. Battle of Fallujah
   6. Metrics
      1. Troop Casualties
      2. Civilian Casualties
      3. Resources
         1. SabanCenter_IraqIndex.pdf
   7. Iran
      1. Iranian Influence
         1. Iran Military
            1. Quds Force
            2. Trains Badr Brigade
            3. Material Support
            4. Katayusha Rockets
            5. RPGs
            6. EFPs
            7. “The Quds Force is to the Shiite militias as al-Qaeda in Iraq is to the Sunni insurgent groups" - Rick Francona
            8. Some estimate 30,000 Iranian operatives in Iraq
         2. US Intelligence
            1. Much is Secret
            2. Some/Much is Disputed by Iraqi Gov, Experts
            3. Bush Claim: Material Support
            4. Mortars
            5. Sophisticated Roadside Bombs
            6. Threatened Retaliation Against Weapons Networks if Iran Extended Influence
            7. Does Not Blame Iranian Leadership
         3. Religious Influence
            1. Religious Students to Iraq
            2. 2,000 sent
            3. Holy Cities: Najaf and Karbala
            4. 1/3rd of them Iranian Intelligence
            5. influence politics, elections
            6. cross-border tourism
            7. Shiite Connection
            8. Grand Ayatollah Ali-Sistani is Native of Iran
         4. Economic Influence
            1. Iranian Currency (Rial) used in southern Iraq
            2. 1.8 billion dollars in exports to Iraq (2006)
            3. Basra
            4. Lots of Iranian Goods
            5. Iran building highway to Basra
            6. Tehran Plans Branch of Natl Bank in Baghdad
         5. Social Influence
            1. Powerful Shiites Lived in Iran
            2. fled Baath Regime
            3. Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim
            4. Leader of SIIC
            5. Shiite
            6. Largest Political Party of Iraq
            7. founded SIIC in 80s in exile in Iran
            8. Military Wing: Badr Brigade
            9. 6 of his brothers killed by order of S. Hussein
            10. Basra Connection
      2. US Reaction to Influence
         1. military authorization to capture or kill Iranian operatives in Iraq
         2. US troops raided Iranian consulate
         3. detained Iranian operatives
         4. Deal Struck
            1. US release 9 suspected Quds Force
            2. Iran Promises to Stop Funding, Arming Extremists
      3. Iran's Motivations
         1. Security Buffer Zone
            1. first line of defense against invasion
            2. prevent another Saddam
         2. Strengthen Iraq-Iran Relations
            1. ethnic
            2. religious
            3. political
            4. economic
         3. Curtail US Influence
            1. Iran does not want failed state
            2. Iran does not want client state for US
            3. "managed chaos"
            4. keep US forces tied down
         4. Nuclear Program
3. Iraq
   1. Insurgency
      1. Former Regime Loyalists
      2. Shiite Militias
      3. Al Qaeda in Iraq
   2. Elections
      1. 2005 Nationwide Elections
         1. January Parliamentery Elections
            1. Results
            2. Shiite
            3. United Iraqi Alliance (UAI)
            4. Islamic Action
            5. National Independent and Elites
            6. Sunni
            7. Iraqis Party
            8. Liberation and Reconcilliation Gathering
            9. Iraqis List
            10. Kurd
            11. Kurdistan Alliance
            12. Kurdistant Islamic Group
            13. Other, Secular
            14. People's Union
            15. Iraqi Turkoman Front
            16. National Democratic Alliance
            17. Rafidain National List
            18. Security
            19. 300 Attacks
            20. No Polling Stations Overrun
            21. 2 Days Prior: Vehicle Traffic Banned
            22. Iraqi Border Closed
         2. October Referendum
         3. December Parliamentery Elections
            1. Iraqi_legislative_election_of_Dec_2005_with_logos.png
         4. Resources
            1. CRS_Jan2006_Gov_Const_Elections.pdf
      2. 2009 Provincial Elections
         1. Jamestown_Feb2009_ProvincialElections.pdf
   3. Government of Iraq
      1. Constitution
      2. Structure
      3. Parties
   4. Iraqi Society
      1. Ethnic Groups
         1. Kurds (15%-20%)
         2. Arabs (75%-80%)
         3. Assyrians, Turkmen, Others (5%)
      2. Religions
         1. Muslim (97%)
            1. Shia (60%)
            2. Sunni (35%)
         2. Christian (3%)
      3. Languages
         1. Official Languages
            1. Arabic
            2. Kurdish
         2. Regional Official Languages
            1. Assyrian
            2. Turkmen
      4. Tribalism
      5. Economy
      6. Culture
      7. Diaspora
         1. 2 million left Iraq
            1. Jordan
            2. Syria
         2. 40% of Middle Class left
         3. 2 million internally displaced
   5. Reconciliation
      1. Oil
         1. Oil Capacity
            1. Challenges
            2. Security
            3. 460 attacks since 2003
            4. attacks have slowed since 2007
            5. Poor Infrastructure
            6. Damaged Since Saddam Days
            7. Not developed since 2003
            8. trained technicians left after 2003
            9. lack of expertise
            10. intimidation of experts, leaders
            11. Output and Reserves
            12. Today: 2.5 million barrels/day
            13. Reserves
            14. 2001 Proven Reserves: 115 bil. barrels
            15. 2001: 3rd largest Proven Reserves in world, after SA & Canada
            16. undiscovered reserves: 45-110 billion
            17. "Western Desert" - Sunni Controlled
            18. less than 20% of country explored (CSIS claim)
            19. Output
            20. 2003 Bush: 5 yrs after invasion Iraq will pump 6 mil barrels/day
            21. 2010: will reach 4 million barrels/day
         2. Viewpoints
            1. Kurd
            2. wants regional autonomy
            3. wants right to develop new and existing fields in region
            4. wants right to bypass Baghdad to sign foreign oil contracts
            5. already have 15 production contracts w/foreign firms
            6. Consensus: big oil companies want federal legislation
            7. distrusts central gov
            8. views national oil company unaccountable
            9. Sunni
            10. live mainly in regions without much oil
            11. favor strong central government role
            12. contracts
            13. infrastructure development
            14. does not want to become overly reliant on foreign oil companies
            15. Shia
         3. Draft Oil Law (Feb 2007)
            1. Regional Influence on National Authority
            2. Reps sit on oil and gas council
            3. Reps sit on board of National Oil Company
            4. Kurd Objection: gives central authority too much control over local resources
            5. Developing New and Untapped Fields
            6. Cedes 4 Oil Annexes to Central Authority
            7. Legislation says Baghdad AND regional authorities will determine management of untapped fields
            8. Kurds oppose this wording
            9. Issues Holding Up Legislation
            10. New vs. Old Oil Fields
            11. IraqOilFields800.jpg
            12. Two Views on Control of New Oil Fields
            13. Kurds: constitution says regions have control of new oil fields
            14. Sunni and Shia: say there should be regional-national partnership
            15. Disagreement on Which Oil Fields are Labeled "New"
            16. Revenue Sharing
            17. Role of Foreign Companies
            18. Sunni believes they will take Iraqi oil money, erode sovereignty
            19. Experts believe foreign investment is necessary
      2. Cleaning Up Police, Military
      3. Kurdish Question
         1. Kirkuk
            1. Kurdish View
            2. Some Kurds claim Kirkuk in Kurdistan
            3. Lived there before Saddamm's ethnic cleansing
            4. Oil Capital of North
            5. Region Around Kirkuk
            6. 40% of Iraq's Oil Production
            7. 70% of Iraq's Natural Gas Production
            8. Location Problems
            9. No Ports
            10. Oil Must Be Exported Through South or Turkey
            11. Turkish View
            12. historically Turkmen city
            13. Kirkuk has access to oil: part of strategy for Kurdish independence
            14. History
            15. Kirkuk Under Saddamm
            16. many poor Shiites relocated to Kirkuk under Saddamm under his Arabization Plan
            17. Kurds and Turkmen ethnically cleansed
            18. Kirkuk Since 2003
            19. 350,000 Kurds transplanted to Kirkuk since 2003
            20. 150,000 Arabs fled Kirkuk due to intimidation or violence
            21. under de facto Kurdish control
            22. Ethnic Claims
            23. 1957 Census - Turkmen Majority
            24. 1997 Census - Arab Majority
            25. Some Kurds claim Kirkuk is in Kurdistan
            26. Experts dispute census numbers because Kurds ID'd as arabs to protect land
            27. Kirkuk Referendum
            28. Referendum in Constitution
            29. ISG Recommended Referendum be Delayed for more favorable politicla climate
            30. Referendum repeatedly delayed
         2. Turkey
            1. Turks want PKK members arrested and extradited by Iraqi Government
            2. Kurds Not Willing to Hunt Down PKK
            3. clampdown could cause violence b/w Kurdish factions
            4. lack of political power to do it
      4. Sons of Iraq
         1. Disarming
         2. Integration to Police, Military
      5. Resources
         1. CRS_Jan2008_GovFormation_Benchmarks.pdf
         2. CRS_Dec2008_Oil_Revenue_Sharing.pdf
         3. Draft Iraq Oil and Gas Law English__2007_03_09_h17m2s47.pdf
         4. Iraq_Oil_Sector_Report.pdf
         5. iraq_oil_pipelines_cities_oilfields.gif
         6. world_oil_producers.gif
   6. Iraqi Security Forces
   7. Maps and Graphics
      1. CIA Overview
   8. Iraqi National Police
   9. Refugee Crisis
   10. Geography
       1. Major Cities
          1. Baghdad
          2. Mosul
          3. Kirkuk
          4. Basra
          5. Fallujah
          6. Najaf
       2. Ports
4. Causes and Effects
   1. Effects
      1. Force Levels
      2. Iran
      3. Oil
      4. Terrorism
      5. Cost
   2. Causes
      1. Intelligence Failures
      2. Historical Causes
         1. Exile Movement
         2. Gulf War 1
         3. Post-Gulf War Policy
         4. Al Qaeda and 9/11
         5. Oil
      3. Stated Reasons
         1. Human Rights
         2. WMD
      4. Arguments Against
         1. Realist Arguments
         2. Leftist Arguments
      5. Deception
         1. Outright Lies
         2. Exxageration
   3. Public Debate
      1. American Public
      2. Congress
      3. Media
         1. New York Times
         2. Fox News
      4. Intellectuals
   4. Steps to War
      1. United Nations Resolutions
      2. Congressioanl Authorization
      3. Ultimatum
   5. International Support
5. US Domestic Politics
   1. Public Opinion
      1. War
      2. Bush
      3. Congress
      4. Republicans
      5. Democrats
   2. Congressional Votes
   3. Elections
      1. 2002 Elections
      2. 2004 Elections
      3. 2006 Elections
      4. 2008 Elections
   4. Debates
      1. Election Debates
         1. Bush v. Kerry
         2. McCain v. Obama
      2. Bush v. Congress
         1. Timeline
         2. Immediate Withdrawal
         3. Stay the Course
         4. Partition
6. Appendices
   1. Appendix A: Key Players
      1. US Gov
         1. Bush 1
            1. George W. Bush, President
            2. Dick Cheney, Vice-President
            3. Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense
            4. Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy Secretary of Defense
            5. Condoleeza Rice, National Security Adviser
            6. George Tenet, CIA Director
            7. Colin Powell, Secretary of State
            8. Robert Gates, Secretary of Defense
         2. Bush 2
         3. Obama
      2. Military
         1. Joint Chiefs
         2. Central Command
         3. Commanding General
      3. Iraqis
         1. Exiles
         2. Government of Iraq
            1. Shia
            2. Sunni
            3. Kurd
         3. Religious Leaders
         4. Militia Groups
            1. JAM
            2. Badr Brigade
      4. Congress
         1. Clinton
         2. Obama
         3. Luger
         4. Murtha
         5. Biden
         6. McCain
   2. Appendix B: Key Events
      1. Samarra Shrine Bombing
      2. Abu Ghraib
      3. Basra Takeover
      4. Sunni Awakening
      5. Saddam Hussein Executed
      6. White House Shake Up
      7. "Mission Accomplished"
      8. September 2007 Hearings
      9. 2006 Midterm Elections
   3. Appendix C: Key Documents
      1. Counterinsurgency Manual
      2. Bush Doctrine
      3. PNAC Letter
      4. CRS Reports
         1. CRS_Feb2009_Iraq_Master.pdf
         2. CRS_Nov2008_Reconstruction_Master.pdf