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Week 1
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1.2 Choice Architecture
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Humans Are
- •Emotional
- •Influenced by the context
- •Shortsighted and myopic
- •Inconsistent
- •Imperfect information processors
- •Cognitively lazy
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Context affects Choice
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Compromise Effect
- Options tend to get chosen more often when they are the compromise option in a choice set
- Simonson, I (1989), Journal of Consumer Research.
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Defaults
- A no-action default is the outcome when an individual fails to make a decision
- Johnson E. and D. Goldstein (2003), Science
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Intention – Action Gap
- People often fail to accomplish what they want
- Short-term vs long-term
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Implications of Humans ≠ Econs
- Failure rates of new products are high: Perhaps due to a failure to appreciate the underlying consumer psychology
- Take-up rates of welfare programs are sometimes low
- Policy and Disclosures: The belief that disclosing more information rather than less may backfire
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Helping people help themselves – make it EASY for them to get to their outcome, or give them a CRUTCH
- Designing contexts [i.e., choice architecture] to help them make better choices [i.e., nudging them]
- Providing tools to compensate for human decision-making flaws
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Behavior Change Strategies
- Strategies non and for-profit
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Who Decides?
- A higher authority – a government, a policy organization, a think tank of subject matter experts, a self-help group
- Social norms, socially acceptable outcomes
- The self; the planner within ourselves
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1.3 Rational Choice
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4 C's of Rationality
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COMPLETE information
- all outcomes/probabilities
- all relevant future events
- all attributes, even hidden
- all relevant context
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COGNITION and not emotion driving decision making
- emotion is a natural part of human choice
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COMPUTATIONAL ability
- utility calculation, U=∑wiui(xi)
- assumes brain works like a computer
- bounded rationality - constrained by computational capacity
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CONSISTENCY with the axioms of choice
- An axiom is a proposition that is considered to be self-evident.
- Axiom: Transitivity
- relative comparisons should transfer (if A>B and B>C, then A>C
- violated in many cases of human decision making
- Axiom: Substitution
- If you are indifferent between two options, you should be
indifferent between a gamble, which has different properties
but the same outcomes.
- Cancellation: two options with identical features could be
cancelled out if they are opposing
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1.4 Decision Points
- Package into smaller units to prompt decisions
- more decision points = less consumption
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decision points as a nudge
- making people save money in small visual
envelopes helps people save more
- adding pictures of children to the envelope
makes the decision point more powerful
- makes you stop and think
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how to create
- transaction costs
- reminders
- interruption
- verification
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Week 2
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2.1 Mental Accounting
- violates fungibility - not all forms
of value are equivalent and can
be set aside for specific purposes
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Mental Accounting Elements
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Metering
- keeping track
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Categorizing
- meaningful categories
- sources of income
- spending categories
- time - weekly, monthly, yearly, etc.
- individual transactions - set aside for something specific
- losing value from a categorized bucket (like losing a ticket you already paid for)
feels different than spending new, uncategorized money
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Mental Accounting Effects
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overconsuming
- budgeting too much OR leaving uncategorized
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underconsuming
- underbudgeting leads to making due
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sunk costs
- driven to consume what has already been paid for
even if they would make a different choice otherwise
- weakening sunk cost effect
- decoupling
- cost per group, not individual physical items
- depreciation
- time reduces the pain of a past payment
- inability to meter accurately
- foreign money hurts metering ability
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pennies a day pricing
- express lump amount as $ per day
- compare to other daily expenses
- only works if the price is low
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Lessons
- •When you want people to consume, highlight the cost they have already incurred.
- •Conversely, when you would like them to forego consumption,
mask the cost. This could be done through transaction formats, timing, or currency.
- •Designating money towards a particular purpose
makes it more likely to be spent on that purpose
- •A match between the source of funds (e.g., cash won in a lottery) and
use (e.g., a vacation) increases the likelihood or spending.
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2.2 Choice Overload
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observations
- Too many choices = no/default decision
- potential for regret goes up
- leads people to focus on a single attribute instead
of making a holistic choice considering all important
attributes
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Effects
- deferral and non-participation
- conservative choices (attempt to avoid regret)
- status quo, defaults, suggestions have high influence
- reliance on peer choices
- brand defection - select
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combat choice overload
- reduce choices
- help people understand preferences (bots/agents)
- organize options (decision trees, sequential drill-down choices)
- attribute-based decision making
- outsource to experts (e.g. doctors, financial planners, etc.)
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2.3 Self Control
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hyperbolic discounting
- illustration
- delaying a reward is much more painful than speeding it up is pleasurable
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planner vs doer
- how can the planner trick the doer into doing the right thing?
- Willpower vs Desire
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locking mechanisms
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social contracts
- publicly proclaim your goal
- accountability
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peer pressure
- requires a peer to circumvent the lock
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make the default desireable
- set aside money in a savings
account before ever seeing it
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reduce desire
- avoidance
- distraction or substitution
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increase willpower
- pre-commit with locking mechanism
- impose decision points
- cash-based budgeting/spending
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2.4 Spending Uncash
- consumption changes as a function of how you pay
- metering becomes more difficult the further away from cash
- transparency spectrum
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Week 3
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3.1 Experiment Basics
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Why do experiments?
- To document behavioural phenomena
- To develop a theory to explain them
- To study effect sizes
- To reconcile and test across theories with conflicting predictions
- To test for the efficacy of behaviour-change interventions
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Elements
- Cause
- Effect
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Mediator
- happens between the cause and effect
- example: pennies a day pricing (cause) makes
people feel it's more affordable (mediator)
resulting in higher spending (effect)
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Moderator
- modifies the relationship between the cause and effect
- example: high prices in pennies a day research inverse the effect
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background variables
- unmanipulated, natural
- results must be interpreted in the context of the background
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Techniques
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manipulation
- anything an experimenter changes across experimental groups
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randomization
- minimize selection bias
- blinding - double blinding is best to eliminate bias
- bias can be conscious or unconscious
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triangulation
- multiple methods to check results
- by
- dependent measures
- methods used
- multiple sets of background variables
- data analysis techniques
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Conditions
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control condition
- absense of the cause
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treatment condition
- contains intervention
- can have 1 or many levels or permutations
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Types of Designs
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before and after design
- 'natural experiment'
- without intervention before, add intervention midway
- use separate control group with no intervention for total duration
to control for confounding externalities
- illustrated
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two condition experiment
- subjects randomly sorted into control or intervention condition
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fully crossed design
- total of 4 conditions
- illustrated
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within or between-participant design
- between - different groups get different interventions
- within - same group gets different interventions over time
- illustrated
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3.2 Analysis
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ANOVA
- null: the means of all groups are equal
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alternative: not all the means are equal
- doesn't say how or which ones differ
- can follow up with 'multiple comparisons' (AKA contrast tests)
- between and within groups variation
- F-statistic
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Regression
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useful when
- large number of variables we believe might cause the effect
- these variables don't come in neat categories/conditions; might be continuous
- draws the line of best fit (least error)
- a = intercept
- b = coefficient
- p-value - confidence measure
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null hypothesis
- the mean result of control and intervention groups is the same
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t-score
- difference in means / variability
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t-test of differences in means
- liklihood the null is false (null hypothesis is rejected)
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ANOVA Effects
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Main effect
- primary effect
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Interaction effect
- modified effect
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Regression Results
- look only at statistically significant coefficients
- size of the coefficient is indicative of the effect size
- interaction effects are captured by including
the product of the respective X's
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3.3 Lab Experiments
- p value of < 5% means statistically significant
- Subtopic 2
- Subtopic 3