1. Framework to understand characteristics of exponentials
2. Developed by Peter Diamandis and introduced in his book "BOLD"
3. Gartner Hype Cycle
   1. Innovation Trigger
      1. Technology breakthrough
      2. Early proof-of-concept
   2. Peak of Inflated Expectations
      1. First success stories
      2. More failures
      3. Media interest
   3. Trough of Disillusionment
      1. Missing implementations
      2. Technology fails expectations
   4. Slope of Enlightenment
      1. Best practices develop
      2. 2nd and 3rd generation products
   5. Plateau of Productivity
      1. Catches mainstreams attention
      2. Adopts & disrupts market
   6. "the most important telltale factor is the development of a simple and elegant user interface — a gateway of effortless interaction that plucks a technology from the hands of the geeks and deposits it with the entrepreneurs"
4. "The Six Ds are a chain reaction of technological progression, a road map of rapid development that always leads to enormous upheaval and opportunity." Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler, Bold
5. Digitalization
   1. As soon as technology is digital, it grows - thanks to Moore's Law - exponentially
   2. Due to Quantum Computing it turns into Rose's Law
   3. Becomes free to reproduce and share
   4. Smartphone
      1. First portable mobile phone in 1983: the Motorola DynaTAC 8000X
      2. Price: $4.000 USD; Usage of max. 30 minutes before battery empty
      3. Only function: make phone calls
      4. Just available for a few rich tech enthusiasts
   5. 3D-printing
      1. First 3D-printer in 1987: 3D Systems "SLA-1"
      2. Man-high cabinet with extra space for former computers
6. Deception
   1. Period where growth is unnoticed
   2. First progress goes slow and is below linear growth
   3. Kodak: Digital camera goes from 0.01 megapixels to 0.02, 0.02 to 0.04, 0.04 to 0.08
   4. Smartphone
      1. Integrates first, "rough" versions of Gaming, Mails, Videocalls, Music player and more
      2. Chips and batteries improve as well as display resolutions
   5. 3D-printing
      1. With SLA, FDM and SLS the top 3 printing methods are developed
      2. Faster printing and more materials in usage
7. Disruption
   1. Starts influencing the world
   2. creates new market and disrupts an existing one
   3. Smartphone
      1. Steve Jobs introduces iPhone in May 2007
      2. Touchscreen (first introduced by LG Prada and not Apple) changes way we interact with devices
      3. Disrupted: News, Computers, Television, Photography, Music & more
   4. 3D-printing
      1. starts disrupting $10 billion manufacturing market
      2. Disrupts: Transportation, toy, fashion, health, architecture, film & more
      3. First applications
         1. NASA installs 3D-printer on international Spacestation in 2014
         2. April 2019: first printed human heart
8. Demonetization
   1. Removal of money from the equation
   2. Technology becomes cheaper; sometimes for free
   3. Digital photography: In the past limited to single images because each foto on the reel had development costs. Through to development no costs for fotos any more.
   4. Smartphone
      1. Decreasing costs; good phones available for < 100 €
      2. Todays smartphones have 100.000 times more processing power than the computers that brought us to Mars
   5. 3D-printing
      1. Printing speed as well as costs decrease
      2. Reduced costs for warehouses & transportation; print on-demand
9. Dematerialization
   1. Products disappear
   2. Wikipedia dematerialized encyclopedia. iTunes dematerialized music business.
   3. Smartphone
      1. Todays smartphone dematerialized 80s products worth $900k USD (including GPS, music player, camera, maps, Karte, flashlights and books)
      2. More Health sensors like ECG in the future
      3. Next level: No physical device any more
   4. 3D-printing
      1. Manufacturing replaced by 3D-printing
      2. No factories with multiple steps & different machines needed
      3. Print things complete and not in single parts
10. Democratization
    1. Technology scales due to dropped hard costs
    2. Becomes standart
    3. Smartphone
       1. 61 % mobile phone owners worldwide
       2. Usage increased by 40 % since 2016
    4. 3D-printing
       1. 3D-printer in each home?
       2. Print buildings, rockets, cars and everyday-tools for use at home
11. Quellen
    1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMgO3xu1L70
    2. Book "Bold"
    3. Book "The Future Is Faster Than You Think"
    4. https://singularityhub.com/2016/11/22/the-6-ds-of-tech-disruption-a-guide-to-the-digital-economy/
    5. https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle
    6. https://creativehq.co.nz/blog/what-is-exponential-technology/
    7. https://www.tigermobiles.com/evolution/#fifthPhone
    8. https://www.techspot.com/news/78200-tim-cook-wants-apple-greatest-contribution-mankind-healthcare.html
    9. https://www.bankmycell.com/blog/how-many-phones-are-in-the-world
12. Source: www.10xfuture-tech.com