1997 : Thailand hit by massive speculative attacks.
Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchiayudh announced that he will no longer
continue to defend the Thai Baht , which was pegged to US dollar.
Thailand's booming economy @ 9 % per annum came to a halt amid massive layoffs
Thai stock market dropped 75%. Finance one , the largest THai finance company collapsed.
Singapore dipped into a short recession.
But it was relatively short duration due to active management by the government.
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Immediate Trigger of AFC :
Currency Devaluation
Fixed Exchange Rate -> stabilize value of currency to encourage trade
Encouraged Excessive Exposure to risk
Encouraged External Borrowing
exchange market flooded with currencies of crisis countries , putting depreciative pressure on their exchange rates
government had to intervene in exchange market : buying any excess domestic currency with foreign reserves
decision to float currencies :
foreign currency-denominated liabilities grew causing more bankruptcies and further deepening of crisis
Frederic Mischkin : herd mentality among investors
that magnified a relatively small risk in the real economy
Regulation of Capital Inflow : role of financial markets/ liberalization
Economies of SEA maintained high interest rates attractive to foreign investors looking or high rates of return.
As a result , the region's economies received large inflow of money
short-term capital flow that was highly conditioned for quick profit
Monetary Policies
buffer against panic selling : withdrawal of credit : credit crunch
ie. capital fleeing from country
Crony Capitalism
money went to certain people , not particularly the best suited or most efficient,
but those closest to the centers of power
role of the real economy : Bubble awaiting to Burst
As a result of the large inflow of money , economies experenced a dramatic runup in asset prices.
1994 , Economist Paul Krugman attacked the "Asian economic miracle".
He argued that it' economic growth had been solely the result of capital investment.
However , growth in total factor productivity had only increased marginally and that
only the latter could guarantee long term prosperity.
large quantities of credit became available generated by a highly leveraged economic climate ,
pushing asset prices to an unsustainable level
asset prices began to collapse causing individuals an companies to default on debt obligations
Current Account Deficits
Susceptible to emerging competitors
growing exports of China ,
leading to export growth slowdown
US Federal Reserve Bak under Alan Greenspan raised U.S. interest rated
making US a more attractive investment destination