1. meaning of estimating
   1. support making decision
   2. determine project goes well or not
   3. determine how long takes form project and how much
   4. develop cash flow needs
   5. develop time-phase budget and make project baseline
2. factors influence estimate
   1. planning horizeon
      1. time line
         1. current event close to 100% acurate
         2. distant event less accurate
   2. project duration
      1. new technology
         1. increase uncertainly
      2. long duration
         1. increase uncertainty
   3. people
      1. error in estimating cost and resource
         1. depends on people skill
         2. members relationship
            1. new member needs time
   4. project structure and organisation
      1. dedicated project
         1. earlier speed
         2. additional cost
            1. full time focus
      2. matrix environment
         1. reduce cost
         2. take time
            1. attention is divided
            2. high coordination
   5. padding estimates
      1. tend to inclined to pad estimate
         1. estimate more cost and time
            1. manager cut some percent and difficult to find accurate estimate
   6. organisation culture
      1. ask for accurate estimate
      2. tolerated for padding estimate
   7. other factors
      1. changing equipment
      2. national holiday
      3. legal limit
3. guidelines for times,cost and resources
   1. responsibility
      1. most familiar person wiz the task should estimate
      2. person who has experince
         1. help build communicatio
         2. try to achieve estimated time
   2. use several people to estimate
      1. eliminate extra error
      2. get rid of bias
   3. normal condition
      1. same working time
      2. same resource
      3. same working shift
   4. time units
      1. share correct time units
         1. calender days
         2. minuts
            1. ex)for emergency
         3. working days
   5. independence
      1. prevent rough guesstimate
   6. contingencies
      1. manager prepare unforeseen event
   7. adding risk assessment
      1. identify degree of risk
      2. think alternative method
   8. those guide line help to avoid pitfall
4. top-down or bottom-up
   1. top-down
      1. experienced user estimate
      2. low-cost
      3. efficient methods
   2. bottom-up
      1. check on cost
         1. make budget
      2. resource requirement is checked
         1. resource schedule
      3. check time
         1. time phase network
      4. flexible for consumers need
5. method for estimating
   1. topp-down
      1. consensus method
         1. meeting
         2. macro estimate
         3. effective in initial stage
         4. hard to reflect individual work
      2. ration methods
         1. need phase of project
            1. estimated by feature and complexity
            2. software product
            3. capacity
         2. apportion method
            1. project follow past and future
            2. make estimate from past data
      3. function point
         1. ldepends on labour effort and cost
            1. put weight for
            2. input
            3. out put
            4. inquiries
            5. files
            6. interfaces
            7. calculate how many works are needed
            8. how much cost is took
      4. learning curve
         1. estimate the enhanced performance by repeatation
   2. botom
      1. template methods
         1. development template in data base
      2. paramatic procedure
         1. calcurate cost and size
      3. range estimating
         1. in the case that uncertainty
            1. give high average and low estimate for each activities
            2. find potential risk
            3. confidence the maching estimate and real
   3. hybrid estimating
      1. begin with top down but refine estimate as stage
         1. phase estimating
            1. mcroestmate
            2. maintained through projects
            3. detailed estimate
            4. immediate phase
            5. have clear information
            6. for unusual amount of uncertainty
            7. not clear final product
            8. customer can change the feature of goods
6. level of detail
   1. level of detail depends on different level of managemant
      1. should no more than necessary in each stage
         1. prevent more unprductive paperwork
      2. top manage
         1. total project and mile stone
      3. middole manage
         1. segment and one mile stone
      4. first line manage
         1. one task or one packege
7. types of cost
   1. dilect cost
      1. clearly charged for specific works
         1. labor
         2. materials
         3. equipment
         4. other
   2. direct project overhead cost
      1. resource of the organizsation material that is used for project
         1. project deliverable
         2. work package
         3. the rate is ration of the dollers value
   3. general and adoministratibe overhead cost
      1. the ost not diretly linled with project
         1. cost across all product
         2. allocated as percent of total cost
8. refining estimate
   1. estimeted number tend to be far off
      1. hidden interaction costs
         1. each estimate is done by independently
            1. but some tasks are related with other segement
            2. cause gap
      2. normal condition don not apply
         1. using resource tend to be extend to orginal one
      3. things go wrong on projects
         1. unexpected things
      4. change in project scop and plans
         1. as projet proceed, the scope is changed
            1. following material and cost are changed
   2. effective organisation adjust estimate
      1. there are mistakes
9. creating data base for estimating
   1. estimate will be more accurate by using past data
   2. select specific works from database