1. Unsurmountable obstacles in 2015
   1. Unstable domestic backing
   2. Strong ambition with mediocre political communication
      1. TW ppl aren't convinced on the interactions cross-strait
   3. Enduring suspicion and distrust of Beijing
      1. BJ don't trust TW
         1. int'l participation
            1. more involvement internationally=independence
         2. after Sun Flower Movement
            1. social movements worried BJ
            2. Occupy Central enhance the belief
2. Richard Bush
   1. Political dialogue
      1. unlikely or even impossilbe
         1. civil opposition
         2. political gap
   2. Ma-Xi meeting
      1. not impossible
      2. contingent upon
         1. international vs. domestically
         2. party to party? leader to leader?
         3. reference to each other? media description?
         4. agenda?
            1. what do they seek to accomplish
   3. TW international space/activity
      1. restrictive or openness
         1. results in winning or losing the hearts and minds of TW ppl.
   4. military deterrence
   5. TW facing 3 dilemma in economics
      1. degree of liberalization of economics
      2. liberalization direction
         1. toward China
         2. toward other partners
         3. both (r's reccomendation)
      3. TW's react to Beijing's containment on TW participation