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Hypothesis
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Plan
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The hypothesis is formed from what we want to know, understand, study
- Describe
- Prioritize
- Backlog
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Use Pattern
- If....., Then....
- SMART
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use Experiment description template
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Hypothesis. Description
- what and how we want to achieve
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Product
- What we do in the product
- what the experience of the test and control groups looks like
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Users
- which users and at what point they become a part of the experiment
- Minimum sample size
- use calc
- How
- 1
- Statistical Power (1−β)
- Determine the power of the test
- Percent of the time the minimum effect size will be detected, assuming it exists
- The power is usually set at 80% and the confidence level is 95%
- Significance level α
- Percent of the time a difference will be detected, assuming one does NOT exist
- the level of trust
- 2
- Determine the minimum effect that we want to notice in the experiment (in %)
- conv2-conv1
- conv2 is the expected conversion of the test group
- conv1 is the conversion that we have now
- 3
- Solve the equation by substituting the values into the formula and look for X
- X is the required minimum sample size for each group
- x = conv2 - conv1 +-1.96 * sqrt( (conv1 * (1-conv1) / x + (conv2 * (1-conv2) /x)
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Key metrics
- for evaluating the experiment
- what should change, how to measure it)
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Expected effect
- sample size for experiment
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An action plan
- depending on the results of the experiment (if X, then we do Y, if Z, then we do Q)
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Remebmer
- avoid obvious hypotheses
- facts are not hypotheses, they are current tasks
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think about the metric affected by the hypothesis
- The recipe for a good METRIC
- Some notes about metrics for PO
- think about strategy of collection and evaluation of results
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Action
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Do
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What do we do to test the hypothesis?
- think about time
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Start the experiment
- measure the results
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Data
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Check
- what metric will change affect
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data collection
- Analyzed changes
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Insigth
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Act
- % improvement
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...and
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Belief in effect
- 0... 10%
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Difficulty in realization
- 1..5
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It will be interesting
- https://www.iidf.ru/media/articles/lifehacks/hadi-tsikly-5-layfkhakov/
- http://startupkitchen.blog/carrot-quest-case-hadi-cycles-and-how-to-increase-project-development-with-their-help/
- HOW WE USE PDCA
- Some notes about A-B testing
- Статистика: Задача- Метод. A/B Testing. Statistical tests (Ru, En)
- ML продукты. Разбираем основы
- Some notes about Exploratory Data Analysis (Python and Pandas)
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New Agile-project. Let's Start!
- https://www.xmind.net/m/k756Qn/
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tools
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tools
- CLT for means
- Normal Table - z Table - Standard Normal Table - Normal Distribution Table
- Distribution Calculator
- Sample Size Calculator (Evan’s Awesome A/B Tools)
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jypyter notebook
- Jupyter Notebook для начинающих: учебник - Еще один блог веб разработчика
- Values of the t-distribution (two-tailed)
- Understanding and Interpreting Correlations - an Interactive Visualization
- Diagnostics for simple linear regression