1. Introduction
   1. Basic Descriptive Statistics
      1. Central Tendency
         1. Mean
         2. Median
         3. Mode
      2. Dispersion
         1. Standard Deviation
         2. Variance
      3. Normal Curve Deviations
         1. Kurtosis
         2. Skewness
   2. Classical Test Theory (CCT)
      1. Obtained Score
      2. Weights Items Equally
2. Reliability
   1. Correlation Coefficient
   2. Test-Retest (Temporal)
   3. Internal Consistency
      1. Homogeneity among items
      2. Average intercorrelations among all items
      3. Chronbach's coefficient alpha
         1. Upper limit
         2. Lower limit
   4. Interrater
      1. Percentage of agreement
         1. Vulnerable to chance agreements
         2. Vulnerable to ranking/level of scores
      2. Interclass correlation coefficient
      3. Kappa coefficient
   5. Standard Error of Measurement (Confidence Intervals)
      1. Cutting Scores
   6. Stability of Test Patterns or Profile Scores
      1. MMPI
         1. Pattern stable in fewer than 50%
         2. More research needed
      2. Rorschach
         1. Generally trait stable
         2. Generally state unstable
   7. Redundancy of Test Scores
3. Validity
   1. Limits
   2. Various Comparisons
   3. Abstract vs Construct
   4. Convergent Validity
   5. Discriminant Validity
   6. Incremental Validity
4. Clinical Decision Making
   1. Prevalence (Base Rate) Data
      1. Base Rates in General Population
      2. Variable by Diagnosis
         1. Mood Disorders
            1. Major Depressive Disorder
            2. Dysthymic Disorder
            3. Bipolar Disorder
            4. Suicide
         2. Anxiety Disorders
            1. Panic Disorder
            2. Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder
            3. Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder
            4. Generalized Anxiety Disorder
            5. Social Phobia
            6. Agoraphobia
            7. Specific Phobia
         3. Schizophrenia
         4. Eating Disorders
            1. Anorexia Nervosa
            2. Bulimia Nervosa
            3. Binge-Eating Disorder
         5. Personality Disorders
            1. Antisocial Personality Disorder
            2. Avoidant Personality Disorder
            3. Borderline Personality Disorder
      3. Base Rates in Clinical Settings
         1. Less information on frequency
         2. Frequency statistics influenced by a clinical setting
         3. Clinic Focus Clinic Specialization
         4. Good Decisions
            1. General Prevalence Limitations
            2. Local Norms
            3. Challenge
   2. Clinical versus Statistical Judgment
      1. Statistical Judgment
      2. Clinical Judgment
      3. Meta-Analysis Findings
         1. Accuracy Variance
            1. with the type of decision being made
            2. with the setting in which data are collected
            3. with the type of statistical formula used
            4. with the amount of information available to the clinician
            5. and the amount of data available for inclusion in the formulas
         2. Accuracy Increase
            1. Statistical increases over Clinical Judgments was Modest
            2. Statistical judgments 13% to 10% more accurate than clinical judgment
         3. Accuracy Equal
            1. Clinical judgment equaled the accuracy of statistical judgment in many instances
            2. and was even more accurate than a formula.
      4. Complementary Approaches
         1. Balanced Manner
         2. Enhance Accuracy
      5. Variables to Use
      6. Ideal Goal
      7. Often Pitted Against Each Other
   3. Risk Factors
      1. Odds Ratios
      2. Lifetime Prevalence
   4. Heterogeneity in Patients within the Same Diagnostic Group
      1. Alcoholics
      2. Borderlines
      3. Homogeneity myth
      4. Heterogeneity truth
      5. Polythetic Diagnostic Criteria
         1. Patients with Various Disorders
         2. Commonly occurring overlap in symptoms
         3. Lack of firm boundaries between disorders
         4. Examples
            1. Borderline Personality Disorder
            2. Patient A
            3. Criterion 1
            4. Criterion 2
            5. Criterion 3
            6. Criterion 4
            7. Criterion 5
            8. Criterion 6
            9. Criterion 7
            10. Criterion 8
            11. Criterion 9
            12. Patient B
            13. Criterion 1
            14. Criterion 2
            15. Criterion 3
            16. Criterion 4
            17. Criterion 5
            18. Criterion 6
            19. Criterion 7
            20. Criterion 8
            21. Criterion 9
            22. Major Depressive Disorder
            23. Patient C
            24. Criterion 1
            25. Criterion 2
            26. Criterion 3
            27. Criterion 4
            28. Criterion 5
            29. Criterion 6
            30. Criterion 7
            31. Criterion 8
            32. Criterion 9
            33. Patient D
            34. Criterion 1
            35. Criterion 2
            36. Criterion 3
            37. Criterion 4
            38. Criterion 5
            39. Criterion 6
            40. Criterion 7
            41. Criterion 8
            42. Criterion 9
         5. Appropriate to use
   5. Diagnostic Efficiency Statistics
   6. Cutting Scores
5. Impediments to Accurate Decisions
   1. Vividness (Saliency)
   2. Confirmatory Bias
   3. Lack of Feedback on the Accuracy of Interpretations
   4. Lack of Awareness of Relevant Variables
   5. Task Complexity
   6. Incomplete Information
6. Concluding Comments