1. Complex adaptive systems
   1. Tests
      1. Agents acting in parallel
      2. Multiple levels of organisation
      3. Require replenishment
      4. Anticipate and learn
   2. Historical
      1. S-curve
         1. Maturity
         2. Introduction
         3. Acceleration
         4. S-curve
         5. Acceptance
      2. Industrial organisation
         1. Physics
         2. equilibrium
         3. agriculture/manufacturing
   3. Santa Fe institute
      1. scientists
      2. rigidity-flourish-randomness
   4. Strategic relevance
      1. Equilibrium=Risk
      2. Self-organisation and Emergent complexity
      3. Bounded instability
      4. Disturb do not direct
2. Equilibrium
   1. Bounded instability
   2. Seductive pull of equilibrium
      1. Vision
      2. Values
      3. Organisational fit
   3. IBM
      1. Saw it coming
      2. No change
      3. Hamel
         1. Age of management
         2. Location
   4. Threats
      1. Death
      2. Sex
   5. Shell 1996
      1. Background
         1. 100 year history
         2. Good profits
         3. independent country ops
         4. Overcapacity
         5. Bureaucracy
      2. 'Transformation'
         1. Traumatic downsizing
         2. Reorganisation
         3. Senior management workshops
         4. Impenetrable culture
            1. no change in Downstream
         5. send green shoots forth
3. Self-organisation and Emergent Complexity
   1. Self Organisation
      1. settle
   2. Emergent Complexity
      1. complex off-shoots
   3. Shell
      1. Cannot generate answers from the top
      2. Retailing boot camps
         1. cascading approch
         2. leadership skills
         3. fishbowl
            1. review
4. Edge of Chaos
   1. Generative complexity
      1. transition
      2. Schumpeter's 'creative destruction'
   2. Shell
      1. Stress
      2. Refocus
      3. Reallocate time
      4. Cultural unfreezing
5. Disturbance
   1. Coyote
   2. Weak cause and effect links
   3. Shell
      1. Experimentation
      2. Rapid learning
      3. Momentum of success
      4. Letting go