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Efficient market hypothesis
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Three forms of market efficiency
- Strong form efficient
- Semi-strong form efficient
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Weak form efficient
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Weak form efficient if it is not possible to predict changes in future prices on the basis of past information about those prices
- This rules out things like the chartists/technical analysis.
- These are an ascending hierarchy. Eg if a market is strong form efficient it will be the other two, but not vice versa
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What do we mean by efficiency?
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It's about the processing of information by that market. How well does a particular market process all the flows on information into prices?
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By well we mean both rationally and quickly
- The 'rational' share price is defined as the expected value of all future dividends including terminal dividends appropriately discounted
- No use for a market to process information slowly so it eventually catches up
- No use for a market to make up prices in a vacuum or by mere sentiment
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Twin functions of stock market
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Raise new capital
- Only a small amount (negative net at times) of real investment is actually financed by this primary function
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Create a secondary liquid market in existing shares.
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Also to try and ensure fair valuations on existing shares/companies
- In order to price new securities correctly
- In order to provide valuations of a company for M&A activity.